Strong El Niño could make 2024 the first year we pass 1.5°C of warming

Early modelling suggests the world’s climate could shift to an El Niño pattern towards the end of 2023, which is likely to increase the global average temperature


A global shift to an El Niño climate pattern later this year could pave the way for the world to breach 1.5°C of warming for the first time in 2024, according to the UK Met Office.

New modelling from the agency suggests the current three-year La Niña phase will end in March and this looks likely to be followed by an El Niño pattern later this year.

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